November 2016 Snapshot – Donald Trump elected President of the US
After a seemingly long and difficult campaign Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States with the Republican Party likely retaining control of the House, and probably the Senate, in Congress. Just as we saw with the Brexit vote, the combination of rising inequality, stagnant middle incomes and the disenchantment of white non-college educated males has seen a backlash against the establishment and helped deliver victory for Trump. This note looks at the implications.
– Donald Trump’s election as President of the United States risks ushering in a period of policy uncertainty which could cause further share market weakness in the short term.
– Australia and Asia generally are particularly exposed to this given the high trade exposure regionally.
– Trump’s victory is a negative for “risk assets” like shares and the $A in the short term – but if he becomes more pragmatic as President, any short term weakness will provide a buying opportunity.