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Intergenerational Wealth Monthly Market Wrap March 2020

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Intergenerational Wealth Monthly Market Wrap for March 2020

Flight to safety globally

  • Global shares fell -8.5% and -4.9% in hedged and unhedged terms, respectively. Emerging markets were relative outperformers (only down -1.6%) with COVID-19 (a.k.a. coronavirus) outbreaks outside of China and their economic impact a driving concern for global share markets.
  • Domestically, Australian shares underperformed international markets falling -7.7% in February. This was driven by weakness in the Energy and Technology sectors with economic growth concerns seeing oil prices fall 13.1% during the month.
  • The Australian dollar (AUD) fell against major currencies by -1.9% attributable to expectations of weaker Chinese growth from the coronavirus and weaker domestic economic data.
  • Fixed income assets rallied with growth concerns from the virus outbreak outside of China the key driver.
  • Another factor was expectations of further interest cuts domestically and internationally (if rates fall on cash in a savings account a bond offering a fixed rate becomes more attractive with investors buying and pushing its price higher. This saw a continuation of positive returns for both domestic fixed income and international fixed income.

As the coronavirus outbreak figured prominently on investor radars…

Globally

  • Global business surveys softened with the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI falling into contractionary territory (pointing to weaker economic growth).
  • Spikes in COVID-19 notably appeared outside of China with South Korea, Italy and Iran now prominent hotspots.

Locally

  • Australian economic growth for the December quarter surprised slightly at 0.5% (consensus: 0.4%) thanks to weaker import spending and stronger inventory and consumption (driven by sales events such as Black Friday).
  • The RBA cut the cash rate by 0.25% to a new low of 0.5% citing concerns over the coronavirus economic impact.
  • The virus outbreak is expected to have a notable impact on economic growth with Tourism Australia citing a 10% decline in bookings from China following Australian government travel bans until early March.
  • The labour market disappointed with the unemployment rate rising to 5.3%, some 0.8% higher than the RBA target of 4.5%

Major asset class performance

 

Asset classes 1 month
%
1 year
%
5 years (p.a.) %
Australian shares -7.7 8.6 6.2
Global shares (hedged) -8.5 4.4 6.9
Global shares (unhedged) -4.9 15.6 10.2
Global small companies (unhedged) -6.3 6.5 8.8
Global emerging markets (unhedged) -1.6 8.3 6.8
Global listed property (hedged) -8.1 2.2 4.1
Cash 0.1 1.3 1.9
Australian fixed income 0.9 9.0 4.4
International fixed income 1.2 9.3 4.5
Source: Bloomberg & IOOF, 28 February 2020

Indices used: Australian Shares: S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, Global shares (hedged): MSCI World ex Australia Net Total Return (in AUD), Global shares (unhedged): MSCI World ex Australia Hedged AUD Net Total Return Index; Global small companies (unhedged): MSCI World Small Cap Net Total Return USD Index (in AUD); Global emerging markets (unhedged): MSCI Emerging Markets EM Net Total Return AUD Index; Global listed property (hedged): FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index Hedged in AUD Net Total Return; Cash: Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index; Australian fixed income: Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+ Yr Index; International fixed income: Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Total Return Index Value Hedged AUD

Please note: Past performance is not indicative of future performance


Currency markets

Exchange rates At close on 29/2 1 month
change
%
1 year
change
%
USD/AUD 0.65 -2.6 -8.2
Euro/AUD 0.59 -2.1 -5.4
Yen/AUD 70.4 -3.0 -11.0
Trade weighted index 57.0 -1.9 -6.1
Source: Bloomberg & IOOF, 28 February 2020. All foreign exchange rates are rounded to two decimal places where appropriate.

Please note: Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by the IOOF Research team for RI Advice Group Pty Ltd ABN 23 001 774 125 AFSL 238429. RI Advice Group Pty Ltd is a company within the IOOF group of companies consisting of IOOF Holdings Limited ABN 49 100 103 722 and its related bodies corporate. This report is current as at the date of issue but may be superseded by future publications. The information in the report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose without the prior written consent of RI Advice Group Pty Ltd. This report may be used on the express condition that you have obtained a copy of the RI Advice Group Pty Ltd Financial Services Guide (FSG) from the website. RI Advice Group Pty Ltd and/or its associated entities, directors and/or its employees may have a material interest in, and may earn brokerage from, any securities or other financial products referred to in this report, or may provide services to the companies referred to in this report. This report is not available for distribution outside Australia and may not be passed on to any third person without the prior written consent of RI Advice Group Pty. RI Advice Group Pty and associated persons (including persons from whom information in this report is sourced) may do business or seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firms or other such persons may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as a single factor in making an investment decision. This report has been prepared in good faith and with reasonable care. Neither RI Advice Group Pty nor any other person makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability, reasonableness or completeness of the contents of this document (including any projections, forecasts, estimates, prospects and returns and any omissions from this document). To the maximum extent permitted by law RI Advice Group Pty, its related bodies corporate and their respective officers, employees, representatives and associates disclaim and exclude all liability for any loss or damage (whether foreseeable or not foreseeable) suffered or incurred by any person acting on any information (including any projections, forecasts, estimates, prospects and returns) provided in, or omitted from this report. General Advice Disclaimer: The information in this report is general advice only and does not take into account your financial circumstances, needs and objectives. Before making any decision based on this report, you should assess your own circumstances or seek advice from a financial adviser. Where applicable, you should obtain and consider a copy of the Product Disclosure Statement, prospectus or other disclosure material relevant to the financial product before you acquire a financial product. It is important to note that investments may go up and down and past performance is not an indicator of future performance.


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